Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2021-22

Provisional Estimates of Annual National Income, 2021-22

AND

Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product for the Fourth Quarter (JAN-MAR), 2021-22

Posted On: 31 MAY 2022 5:30PM by PIB Delhi

The National Statistical Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation is releasing in this Press Note the Provisional Estimates (PE) of National Income, 2021-22 as well as Quarterly Estimates of GDP for the quarter January-March (Q4), 2021-22 along with the corresponding estimates of expenditure components of GDP both at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices in accordance with the release calendar of National Accounts.

Annual and quarterly estimates of GVA at Basic Prices by kind of economic activity along with year on year percent changes, expenditure components of GDP and annual estimates of Gross/Net National Income and Per Capita Income for the years 2019-20, 2020-21 and 2021-22 at Constant (2011-12) and Current Prices are given in Statements 1 to 8.
Real GDP or Gross Domestic Product (GDP) at Constant (2011-12) Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 147.36 lakh crore, as against the First Revised Estimate of ₹ 135.58 lakh crore for the year 2020-21, released on 31.01.2022. The growth in GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 8.7 percent as compared to a contraction of 6.6 percent in 2020-21.
Nominal GDP or GDP at Current Prices in the year 2021-22 is estimated to attain a level of ₹ 236.65 lakh crore, as against ₹ 198.01 lakh crore in 2020-21, showing a growth rate of 19.5 percent.
GDP at Constant (2011-12) Prices in Q4 2021-22 is estimated at ₹ 40.78 lakh crore, as against ₹ 39.18 lakh crore in Q4 2020-21, showing a growth of 4.1 percent.
The Advance and Provisional Estimates of National Income are compiled using the benchmark-indicator method i.e. the estimates available for the previous year referred to as the benchmark year (2020-21 in this case) are extrapolated using the relevant indicators reflecting the performance of sectors. The Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income for the year 2021-22 were released on 28th February, 2022. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest information on relevant indicators in the financial year.
The sector-wise estimates have been compiled using indicators like (i) Index of Industrial Production (IIP), (ii) financial performance of Listed Companies in the Private Corporate Sector based on available quarterly financial results for these companies, (iii) Third Advance Estimates of crop production, (iv) Production of major livestock products, (v) Fish Production, (vi) Production/consumption of Cement and Steel, (vii) Net Tonne Kilometres and Passenger Kilometres for Railways, (viii) Passenger and Cargo traffic handled by Civil Aviation, (ix) Cargo traffic handled at Major Sea Ports, (x) Sales of Commercial Vehicles, (xi) Bank Deposits & Credits, (xii) Accounts of Central & State Governments, etc., available for the financial year. Percentage changes in the main indicators used in the estimation are given in the Annexure.
The total tax revenue used for GDP compilation includes non-GST as well as GST revenue. The Revised Estimates of Tax Revenue for 2021-22 as available in the Annual Financial Statement of the Central Government for 2022-23 and latest information available on the websites of the Controller General of Accounts (CGA) and Comptroller and Auditor General of India (CAG) have been used for estimating taxes on products at Current Prices. For compiling taxes on products at Constant Prices, volume extrapolation is done using volume growth of taxed goods and services. The total product subsidies for Centre were compiled using the latest information on major subsidies viz. Food, Urea, Petroleum and Nutrient based subsidy as available on CGA website and Revised Estimates for 2021-22. The expenditure incurred on subsidies by most States upto March 2022 as available on CAG website along with the state-wise BE provision for 2021-22 were used to compile product subsidies of States. Latest information available on Revenue Expenditure, Interest Payments, Subsidies etc. for Centre and those based on detailed analysis of budget documents of States for 2021-22 were also put to use for estimating Government Final Consumption Expenditure (GFCE).
Improved data coverage, actual tax collections and expenditure incurred on subsidies, data revisions made by source agencies etc. would have a bearing on subsequent revisions of these estimates. Estimates are, therefore, likely to undergo revisions for the aforesaid causes in due course, as per the release calendar. Users should take these into consideration while interpreting the figures.
The next release of quarterly GDP estimates for the quarter April-June 2022 (Q1 2022-23) will be on 31.08.2022.